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Emre Balıca
Emre Balıca
Giriş Tarihi : 17-07-2020 07:19

V W U L Z

Başlık garip gelmiş olabilir.

Hayır…

Yeni çıkan bir cep telefonu markası değil. Bilemediniz yerli ve milli arabaya ait bir şey de değil. Bakan Berat Albayrak’ın sanayi çarklarındaki hareketlenmeden bahsettiği açıklamayı dinlediyseniz aslında az çok anlamaya başladınız diyebilirim.

Mayıs ayındaki sanayi üretimindeki artış ve inşaat, hizmet sektör endeksindeki hareketliliğe göre “V” çıkışının ilk sinyalleri alınmış. Alınmışta, nedir bu “V” çıkışı?

Önce ekonomik büyümeden bahsedelim. Wikipedia tanımına göre; zaman içinde mal ve hizmet üretimi miktarında artış olması durumuna büyüme denmekte. Büyümeyi ölçmek için ise Gayrisafi Yurt İçi Hâsıla kullanılmaktadır. Tabi bunun reel olarak ve nominal olarak ayrımı mevcut. Reel olan gayrisafi yurt içi hâsıla enflasyondan arındırılmış hali demek. Nominal ise cari yıl fiyatlardan bahsettiğimiz durum. Büyümeden söz ederken atlamamız gerek; aslında büyümeyi değerli kılan tam istihdam üretim durumu. Çünkü gerçek anlamda bir büyümeden bahsetmek için tam istihdam çıktı değerinin de artmış olması gerekmektedir.

Dur dur duuuurr… Hemen ekonomik terimlere boğulunca soğuma konudan.

En baştan daha sade gidelim.

Aslında cebine giren para enflasyona karşı değer kaybetmeden artarken, aldığın ürün ve mal çeşidi artıyor ve piyasa da rahatlıkla iş bulabiliyorsan, bunlar ile birlikte ülkenin yurt dışına da sattığı ürün çeşidi ve miktarı da artıyorsa, işte büyüyoruz demektir.

Şimdi bu büyüme arasında “V” de nereden çıktı?

Ekonomide daha çok kriz dönemlerinde daha sık duyduğumuz bazı büyüme tipi modelleri var.

Bu “V” tipi de onlardan biri. “V” şeklinde olduğu gibi giden bir ekonominin dibe vurmasını ve dibe vurduktan sonra hızlı bir toparlama ile yukarı çıkışını ifade etmek için kullanılıyor. İşte iktidarın inandığı da, pandemi süreci sonrasında Türkiye’de toparlanmanın V tipinde olacağı. Buna göre Mayıs ayı dibe vurduğumuz dönem oluyor. Temmuz ile birlikte ise bu dipten çıkış sinyallerinin güçlenerek geleceği düşünülüyor.

Gerçekten öyle mi?

Yorum yapmadan diğer tip büyümelerden de bahsedelim. İçiniz sıkılmaz ise yazının sonunda gerçekliğini tartışırız.

“W” tipi büyüme. Bu büyüme tipinde fark, sürecin biraz daha uzun olması ve iki dip noktasının bulunması. Bu iki dip noktası bugünkü şartlarda düşünülürse ikinci bir pandemi dalgasının yaratacağı sonuçları ifade ediyor. Yani ilk V’nin tamamlandığı nokta bir nevi yalancı bahar. İkinci bir dip muhakkak olacak ve toparlanma bu ikinci dip noktasındaki adımlar sonrasında gelecek demek.

“U” tipi büyümede ise biraz karamsarlık olduğunu söylemek mümkün. Dipte kalış süresinin biraz daha uzun olacağı ve bu sürecin minimumda 2-3 çeyrek olacağından bahsedebiliriz. U tipinin dip noktasının uzun sürmesi birazda geciken ekonomik tedbirler ile alakalı demektir. Bunu da içinden geçtiğimiz ya da bizim içimizden geçen Corana sürecinden bakarsak, toparlanmanın 2021’in ilk yarısında olacağını söyleyen ekonomistlerin beklentisi “U” tipi büyüme.

Ve karamsar senaryonun büyüme modeli, “L” tipi büyüme. Aslında pek de büyümeden saymamak lazım. Dibe düşüşten sonra uzun bir süre daralma ve durgunluğu anlatıyor. Bu senaryo bu dönemde çokta dillendirilen bir büyüme modeli değil. Devletlerin aldığı harcamaya yönelik önlemler bu büyüme modelinin oluşmasına engel olmak için. Muazzam kredi genişlemeleri ile gelir pompalamaya çalışan ülkeleri düşünürsek; “L” olmasın diye ellerinden geleni yapıyorlar.

Burada istisna için not düşelim. “L” tipi büyüme daha çok gelişmekte olan ülkelerin korkusu. Üretimi ve ekonomisi pandemiden önce de sıkıntılı olan ülkeleri düşünürsek “L” tipi onlar için bir olasılık sayılabilir hala. CDS priminin yüksek olduğu ülkeler, döviz sıkıntısı içinde zaten olan ve yatırım kalemlerini krediler ile şişirmeye devam eden ülkeler için bu riskin kalktığını söylemek erken olacaktır. Bu tip ülkelerde yaşayan tanıdığınız var ise şimdiden uyarın derim.

Neyse biz üst taraftaki sorunun cevabına gelelim. Türkiye için genel olarak konuşulan büyüme tipi “V” değil. V demek aşırı iyimser bir durum olacaktır. Pandemi sürecinde kredi ile borçlandırmayı sürdüren bir ekonomi için beklenti olarak elde sadece turizm kaldıysa vay halimize zaten.

Sanayi çarklarının karantina sürecinin yavaş yavaş kalkmaya başladığı Mayıs ve Haziran aylarında harekete geçmesinden daha doğal bir şey olmayacağını düşünürsek, büyüme tipimizin ben “W” ya da 2021’in başlangıç rakamlarına göre 2021’in ikinci yarısından itibaren gerçekleşebilecek bir “U” tipi olur düşüncesindeyim.

Son olarak eğer bahsi çok dillendirilmeye başlanan bir baskın seçim olursa biz bu büyümeleri de rüyamızda görür, kendimize özgü “Z” tipi büyüme yaratırız. Dibin dibi…

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